Our side
MoneylineMTSU to win
ours 51%
Projected score
24–28
NMSU – MTSU
2026-11-28 · 2:00 PM
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
New Mexico State lead
4–3
· 7 meetings since 2001
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
183 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
56 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Run game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
102 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
even
17 ranks apart
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Derek Mason · 30-64
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR
Cam'ron Lacy
17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD
#37 WR
DB
Kalen Woods
13 tkl · 1 PD
#59 DB
DL
Zeion Simpson-Smith
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#286 DL
QB
Roman Gagliano
443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#100 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Mexico State offense vs Middle Tennessee defense+0.2 pts
Middle Tennessee offense vs New Mexico State defense-1.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,190 mi
Altitude · context only1,017 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.