BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

Power Ratings — 2021 50 teams

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ALL FBS FCS Show all

Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), opponent-adjusted, FBS and FCS on one scale. Point-in-time and calibrated (walk-forward ECE 0.037), but a model rating — not a betting edge.

#TeamDivConferencePowerOff (higher = better)Def (higher = better)
1 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +32.7 +13.4 +19.3
2 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +29.3 +18.2 +11.2
3 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +27.4 +21.5 +6.0
4 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +24.3 +13.1 +11.2
5 Cincinnati FBS Big 12 Conference +22.9 +10.3 +12.6
6 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +22.4 +11.0 +11.4
7 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +21.6 +11.6 +10.0
8 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +21.4 +7.9 +13.5
9 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +19.9 +4.8 +15.1
10 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +19.8 +14.3 +5.5
11 Wisconsin FBS Big Ten Conference +19.3 +4.9 +14.4
12 Iowa State FBS Big 12 Conference +19.3 +8.6 +10.6
13 Penn State FBS Big Ten Conference +19.1 +5.0 +14.1
14 Baylor FBS Big 12 Conference +18.7 +5.7 +13.0
15 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +18.4 +4.5 +13.9
16 Pittsburgh FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +17.6 +11.6 +6.0
17 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +17.5 +11.6 +5.8
18 Michigan State FBS Big Ten Conference +17.4 +8.7 +8.7
19 Wake Forest FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +16.5 +15.6 +0.9
20 Iowa FBS Big Ten Conference +16.4 +3.2 +13.1
21 Arkansas FBS Southeastern Conference +16.0 +7.8 +8.2
22 James Madison FBS Sun Belt Conference +15.9 +8.5 +7.4
23 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +15.6 +13.0 +2.6
24 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +15.5 +6.3 +9.2
25 Kansas State FBS Big 12 Conference +15.4 +3.9 +11.5
26 Minnesota FBS Big Ten Conference +15.2 +4.0 +11.2
27 Kentucky FBS Southeastern Conference +15.2 +6.6 +8.6
28 Boise State FBS Mountain West Conference +14.6 +5.6 +9.1
29 BYU FBS Big 12 Conference +14.6 +9.2 +5.5
30 Purdue FBS Big Ten Conference +14.6 +7.0 +7.6
31 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +14.4 +5.2 +9.2
32 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +14.2 +8.7 +5.5
33 Arizona State FBS Big 12 Conference +14.1 +4.4 +9.7
34 Houston FBS Big 12 Conference +14.1 +8.1 +5.9
35 Texas FBS Southeastern Conference +13.3 +13.4 -0.0
36 App State FBS Sun Belt Conference +13.3 +6.7 +6.6
37 Florida FBS Southeastern Conference +13.2 +7.9 +5.3
38 Nebraska FBS Big Ten Conference +13.1 +4.4 +8.7
39 Air Force FBS Mountain West Conference +13.0 +5.2 +7.9
40 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +12.3 +11.8 +0.6
41 LSU FBS Southeastern Conference +12.3 +6.4 +5.9
42 Western Kentucky FBS Conference USA +12.1 +13.3 -1.3
43 SMU FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +11.8 +11.7 +0.0
44 Louisiana FBS Sun Belt Conference +11.7 +3.1 +8.6
45 Oregon State FBS Pac-12 Conference +11.3 +7.7 +3.6
46 Mississippi State FBS Southeastern Conference +11.2 +5.2 +6.0
47 Miami FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +10.7 +7.7 +3.0
48 Louisville FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +10.6 +7.3 +3.3
49 Washington State FBS Pac-12 Conference +10.4 +5.1 +5.3
50 San Diego State FBS Mountain West Conference +9.8 +0.2 +9.7

SRS — season 2021 reference

The prior per-season opponent-adjusted-margin rating, kept for comparison. Season-final only (no preseason or point-in-time), which is why the rewrite replaced it as the headline number.

#TeamDivConferenceSRSOff (higher = better)Def (lower = better)
1 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +40.4 +25.2 -31.9
2 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +34.9 +27.4 -22.0
3 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +34.5 +33.4 -18.3
4 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +34.2 +24.4 -24.2
5 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +30.5 +21.5 -21.1
6 Cincinnati FBS Big 12 Conference +29.9 +18.7 -20.4
7 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +29.7 +18.0 -24.8
8 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +29.4 +21.3 -18.7
9 Michigan State FBS Big Ten Conference +27.4 +18.2 -18.2
10 Penn State FBS Big Ten Conference +27.0 +13.5 -24.1
11 Wisconsin FBS Big Ten Conference +26.9 +15.2 -24.3
12 Pittsburgh FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +26.6 +22.7 -15.6
13 Baylor FBS Big 12 Conference +26.4 +15.7 -23.3
14 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +25.8 +23.7 -16.0
15 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.8 +11.2 -25.1
16 Iowa State FBS Big 12 Conference +25.8 +18.9 -20.2
17 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.7 +16.3 -19.7
18 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +25.4 +19.4 -17.2
19 Wake Forest FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.2 +24.3 -9.7
20 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +24.6 +12.9 -22.7
21 Boise State FBS Mountain West Conference +24.3 +13.7 -19.1
22 Western Kentucky FBS Conference USA +24.1 +24.4 -6.4
23 Kansas State FBS Big 12 Conference +23.7 +12.5 -21.6
24 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +23.6 +21.6 -11.8
25 Kentucky FBS Southeastern Conference +23.6 +16.4 -17.2
26 Purdue FBS Big Ten Conference +23.5 +16.9 -19.4
27 Arkansas FBS Southeastern Conference +23.3 +16.1 -17.4
28 Minnesota FBS Big Ten Conference +23.3 +12.6 -21.7
29 Iowa FBS Big Ten Conference +22.7 +11.7 -21.9
30 Air Force FBS Mountain West Conference +21.8 +13.4 -14.8
31 Nebraska FBS Big Ten Conference +21.4 +15.3 -19.8
32 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +21.2 +24.3 -10.3
33 Houston FBS Big 12 Conference +21.2 +15.1 -14.0
34 BYU FBS Big 12 Conference +21.0 +16.7 -13.3
35 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +20.9 +17.3 -13.9
36 Arizona State FBS Big 12 Conference +20.9 +11.8 -17.6
37 App State FBS Sun Belt Conference +20.9 +14.5 -14.2
38 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +20.4 +15.1 -18.1
39 SMU FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +19.6 +19.1 -8.2
40 Oregon State FBS Pac-12 Conference +19.6 +15.8 -12.8
41 Texas FBS Southeastern Conference +19.5 +22.1 -10.1
42 Louisville FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +19.5 +16.8 -12.8
43 James Madison FBS Sun Belt Conference +19.5 +13.1 -12.2
44 Utah State FBS Mountain West Conference +19.4 +15.1 -10.6
45 Louisiana FBS Sun Belt Conference +19.2 +9.9 -16.5
46 San Diego State FBS Mountain West Conference +18.9 +8.5 -16.4
47 Nevada FBS Mountain West Conference +18.8 +18.2 -8.5
48 Florida FBS Southeastern Conference +18.7 +14.3 -14.2
49 Fresno State FBS Mountain West Conference +18.7 +13.6 -13.7
50 LSU FBS Southeastern Conference +18.7 +13.7 -14.5

Elo — live 2026 · week 2

#TeamDivElo
1 Indiana FBS 1778
2 Notre Dame FBS 1749
3 Georgia FBS 1746
4 Ohio State FBS 1745
5 Texas Tech FBS 1723
6 Miami FBS 1719
7 Ole Miss FBS 1715
8 Alabama FBS 1708
9 James Madison FBS 1703
10 Texas FBS 1701
11 Oregon FBS 1698
12 SMU FBS 1695
13 Utah FBS 1693
14 Texas A&M FBS 1691
15 BYU FBS 1681
16 USC FBS 1676
17 Vanderbilt FBS 1671
18 Penn State FBS 1671
19 Iowa FBS 1664
20 Tennessee FBS 1655
21 Duke FBS 1649
22 Louisville FBS 1644
23 Michigan FBS 1642
24 Washington FBS 1641
25 South Florida FBS 1636

Independent check — SP+ reference, not an input

SP+ is built by someone else from different inputs. Showing it beside our number is the point: two honest estimates, and where they disagree you can see it instead of taking our word for it. Nothing here is fitted to agree with SP+ — it is a yardstick, never an input. Across the 130 teams both systems rate, rank agreement is 0.96 (1.00 = identical order).

Where we disagree most

TeamSP+ rankOur rank (same FBS field)Gap
Tennessee #10 #39 +29 (we're lower)
Coastal Carolina #25 #50 +25 (we're lower)
Fresno State #32 #57 +25 (we're lower)
LSU #65 #40 -25 (we're higher)
Florida State #53 #77 +24 (we're lower)
Wake Forest #39 #19 -20 (we're higher)
UCLA #41 #22 -19 (we're higher)
Western Kentucky #24 #41 +17 (we're lower)

SP+ top 25

#TeamSP+OffDef (lower = better)Our rank (same FBS field)
1 Georgia +32.0 41.4 10.3 #1
2 Ohio State +29.3 47.2 20.6 #3
3 Alabama +26.0 40.9 15.6 #2
4 Michigan +23.4 36.5 15.8 #4
5 Cincinnati +21.2 37.5 15.9 #5
6 Texas A&M +21.1 33.6 14.9 #15
7 Wisconsin +20.1 29.8 10.8 #11
8 Clemson +18.7 28.3 11.6 #9
9 Pittsburgh +17.6 38.2 21.4 #16
10 Tennessee +17.5 39.4 23.8 #39
11 Notre Dame +17.4 36.2 18.9 #6
12 Oklahoma State +17.2 30.6 14.3 #8
13 Oklahoma +16.8 41.1 25.6 #10
14 NC State +16.1 33.1 17.7 #23
15 Baylor +15.6 33.1 17.1 #14
16 Utah +15.2 37.2 20.7 #7
17 Ole Miss +14.8 36.8 22.4 #17
18 Minnesota +14.4 29.3 15.4 #25
19 Iowa State +14.3 33.8 20.2 #12
19 Penn State +14.3 28.0 14.6 #13
21 Kansas State +14.2 33.5 19.0 #24
22 Arkansas +13.8 34.3 21.3 #21
23 Kentucky +13.4 35.1 22.3 #26
24 Western Kentucky +13.3 40.5 28.8 #41
25 Coastal Carolina +13.2 39.5 26.1 #50