On the board
51 priced of 128
Median gap
4.2
Straight up
104–32
Model state
EARLY SEASON
● Top projected winners
76% · 104-32 this season
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
Top projected winners
ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Duke
-15.0 · 88%
over Stanford
-345 FanDuel
Pittsburgh
-13.8 · 85%
over Syracuse
-365 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-10.4 · 82%
over Houston
-340 ESPN Bet
Louisiana
-12.2 · 79%
over UAB
-340 DraftKings
Virginia
-11.5 · 76%
over West Virginia
-330 FanDuel
Vanderbilt
-9.5 · 73%
over NC State
-179 Caesars
North Texas
-1.1 · 69%
over Texas State
+125 BetMGM
Toledo
-10.0 · 69%
over Temple
-192 DraftKings
Top spread reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence
Ole Miss
+3.0
we differ by 3.2 pts
-110 BetMGM
Alabama
-20.5
we differ by 1.5 pts
best -18.5 -110 ESPN Bet
SMU
+2.0
we differ by 9.0 pts
best +2.5 -110 ESPN Bet
Texas A&M
-15.5
we differ by 2.0 pts
-110 ESPN Bet
Wake Forest
+22.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-109 Caesars
Auburn
+2.5
we differ by 0.8 pts
+100 Caesars
Texas Tech
-9.5
we differ by 0.9 pts
best -8.5 -105 ESPN Bet
Mississippi State
+3.5
we differ by 1.3 pts
-109 Caesars
Top total reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line
Under 58.5
-3.5 pts
LSU @ MISS · ours 55.0
-105 Caesars
Over 49.5
+1.2 pts
FSU @ ALA · ours 50.7
-110 BetMGM
Under 59.5
-4.0 pts
SMU @ LOU · ours 55.5
-108 DraftKings
Over 49.5
+4.2 pts
UK @ TA&M · ours 53.7
best 48.5 -115 ESPN Bet
Under 55.5
-3.4 pts
MIA @ WAKE · ours 52.1
-110 BetMGM
Under 53.5
-4.8 pts
FLA @ AUB · ours 48.7
-107 Caesars
Over 53.5
+1.1 pts
HOU @ TTU · ours 54.6
best 52.5 -115 ESPN Bet
Under 58.5
-4.3 pts
MSST @ SC · ours 54.2
-105 BetMGM
Top team totals
our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week
No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.
Our side
SpreadMISS +3
TotalUnder 58.5
MoneylineLSU to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
MISS +3.0 · 58.5
The gap
3.2 pts · -3.5 total
Win prob · ours vs book
50% vs 43%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM · SEC game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
spread
LSU 51% bets · 57% money
total
Under 93% bets · 90% money
ML
LSU 53% bets · 95% money
| Book | LSU spread | MISS spread | Over | Under | LSU win | MISS win | LSU TT over | LSU TT under | MISS TT over | MISS TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
LSU off vs MISS def +4.1 · MISS off vs LSU def +2.0
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadALA -20.5
TotalOver 49.5
MoneylineALA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
ALA -20.5 · 49.5
The gap
1.5 pts · +1.2 total
Win prob · ours vs book
86% vs 90%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
spread
ALA 66% bets · 87% money
total
Over 56% bets · 51% money
ML
ALA 99% bets · 90% money
| Book | FSU spread | ALA spread | Over | Under | FSU win | ALA win | FSU TT over | FSU TT under | ALA TT over | ALA TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
FSU off vs ALA def -7.9 · ALA off vs FSU def +9.9
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadSMU +2
TotalUnder 59.5
MoneylineSMU to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
LOU -2.0 · 59.5
The gap
9.0 pts · -4.0 total
Win prob · ours vs book
43% vs 53%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM · ACC game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
spread
SMU 59% bets · 79% money
total
Under 72% bets · 51% money
ML
LOU 60% bets · 63% money
| Book | SMU spread | LOU spread | Over | Under | SMU win | LOU win | SMU TT over | SMU TT under | LOU TT over | LOU TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
SMU off vs LOU def +8.3 · LOU off vs SMU def +3.4
Away team travels 722 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadTA&M -15.5
TotalOver 49.5
MoneylineTA&M to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
TA&M -15.5 · 49.5
The gap
2.0 pts · +4.2 total
Win prob · ours vs book
85% vs 86%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM · SEC game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
spread
TA&M 57% bets · 66% money
total
Over 66% bets · 71% money
ML
TA&M 98% bets · 99% money
| Book | UK spread | TA&M spread | Over | Under | UK win | TA&M win | UK TT over | UK TT under | TA&M TT over | TA&M TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
UK off vs TA&M def -10.7 · TA&M off vs UK def +6.7
Away team travels 846 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadWAKE +22.5
TotalUnder 55.5
MoneylineMIA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
WAKE +22.5 · 55.5
The gap
5.5 pts · -3.4 total
Win prob · ours vs book
28% vs 8%
Kickoff
Fri Sep 18 · 7:30 PM · 82°F · wind 4 · ACC game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
spread
MIA 72% bets · 82% money
total
Over 61% bets · 80% money
ML
MIA 96% bets · 88% money
| Book | MIA spread | WAKE spread | Over | Under | MIA win | WAKE win | MIA TT over | MIA TT under | WAKE TT over | WAKE TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
MIA off vs WAKE def +8.1 · WAKE off vs MIA def -4.5
Away team travels 703 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadAUB +2.5
TotalUnder 53.5
MoneylineAUB to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
AUB +2.5 · 53.5
The gap
0.8 pts · -4.8 total
Win prob · ours vs book
57% vs 44%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 7:00 PM · SEC game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
total
Over 66% bets · 51% money
ML
FLA 70% bets · 32% money · money AUB
| Book | FLA spread | AUB spread | Over | Under | FLA win | AUB win | FLA TT over | FLA TT under | AUB TT over | AUB TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
FLA off vs AUB def -5.8 · AUB off vs FLA def -4.5
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadTTU -9.5
TotalOver 53.5
MoneylineTTU to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
TTU -9.5 · 53.5
The gap
0.9 pts · +1.1 total
Win prob · ours vs book
79% vs 75%
Kickoff
Fri Sep 18 · 8:00 PM · 89°F · wind 15 · B12 game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
spread
TTU 57% bets · 33% money · money HOU
total
Over 67% bets · 85% money
ML
TTU 98% bets · 83% money
| Book | HOU spread | TTU spread | Over | Under | HOU win | TTU win | HOU TT over | HOU TT under | TTU TT over | TTU TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
HOU off vs TTU def -3.3 · TTU off vs HOU def +9.7
Away team travels 468 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadMSST +3.5
TotalUnder 58.5
MoneylineMSST to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
SC -3.5 · 58.5
The gap
1.3 pts · -4.3 total
Win prob · ours vs book
49% vs 61%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 4:15 PM · SEC game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
total
Under 59% bets · 54% money
ML
SC 92% bets · 14% money · money MSST
| Book | MSST spread | SC spread | Over | Under | MSST win | SC win | MSST TT over | MSST TT under | SC TT over | SC TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
MSST off vs SC def +3.6 · SC off vs MSST def +1.4
Away team travels 448 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadVAN -4.5
TotalOver 52.5
MoneylineVAN to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
VAN -4.5 · 52.5
The gap
5.0 pts · +1.0 total
Win prob · ours vs book
71% vs 62%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 12:45 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured 2 hr ago
total
Over 68% bets · 73% money
ML
VAN 94% bets · 71% money
| Book | NCSU spread | VAN spread | Over | Under | NCSU win | VAN win | NCSU TT over | NCSU TT under | VAN TT over | VAN TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
NCSU off vs VAN def -1.4 · VAN off vs NCSU def +6.6
Away team travels 453 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadARK +24.5
TotalOver 54.5
MoneylineUGA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
ARK +24.5 · 54.5
The gap
6.5 pts · +2.0 total
Win prob · ours vs book
27% vs 6%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 12:00 PM · SEC game
| Book | UGA spread | ARK spread | Over | Under | UGA win | ARK win | UGA TT over | UGA TT under | ARK TT over | ARK TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
UGA off vs ARK def +11.9 · ARK off vs UGA def -1.1
Away team travels 628 mi
Full breakdown →
Only the marquee games are shown as panels — the sheet carries all 51 priced games.