Our side
MoneylineLOU to win
ours 34%
Projected score
26–23
LOU – UNC
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Louisville lead
5–3
· 8 meetings since 1988
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Louisville Cardinals
146 ranks
Louisville Cardinals #25 rush offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Tar Heels
111 ranks
Louisville Cardinals #209 pass offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
Run game
edge Louisville Cardinals
142 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense
Louisville Cardinals #94 run defense
Pass game
edge Louisville Cardinals
156 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense
Louisville Cardinals #5 pass defense
Louisville Cardinals
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
North Carolina Tar Heels
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Jeff Brohm · 86-51 · defense-minded
Bill Belichick · 4-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Louisville Cardinals
QB
Lincoln Kienholz
639 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
#1 QB
WR
Tre Richardson
11 rec · 181 yds · 1 TD
#69 WR
TE
Jaleel Skinner
5 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
#23 TE
WR
Lawayne McCoy
5 rec · 164 yds · 2 TD
#102 WR
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL
Xavier Lewis
12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL
#1 DL
DL
Jaylen Harvey
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#59 DL
TE
Jelani Thurman
8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD
#15 TE
DB
Greg Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#255 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Louisville offense vs North Carolina defense+1.3 pts
North Carolina offense vs Louisville defense-7.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 403 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.