BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

Power Ratings — 2024 136 teams

Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), opponent-adjusted, FBS and FCS on one scale. Point-in-time and calibrated (walk-forward ECE 0.037), but a model rating — not a betting edge.

#	Team	Div	Conference	Power	Off (higher = better)	Def (higher = better)
1	Ohio State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+38.5	+17.3	+21.2
2	Oregon	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+34.3	+19.2	+15.1
3	Notre Dame	FBS	FBS Independents	+34.1	+17.7	+16.4
4	Penn State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+33.1	+14.8	+18.3
5	Texas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+33.0	+14.9	+18.0
6	Alabama	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+30.9	+15.2	+15.7
7	Georgia	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+30.5	+15.4	+15.0
8	Ole Miss	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+30.4	+15.6	+14.8
9	Indiana	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+26.4	+15.5	+10.9
10	SMU	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+26.3	+15.9	+10.4
11	Miami	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+26.2	+20.1	+6.1
12	BYU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+26.0	+12.0	+14.0
13	Kansas State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+25.8	+13.5	+12.3
14	South Carolina	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+25.5	+11.4	+14.2
15	Louisville	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+25.5	+15.0	+10.5
16	LSU	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+25.4	+15.2	+10.2
17	Tennessee	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+25.3	+12.5	+12.8
18	USC	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+25.0	+15.6	+9.5
19	Michigan	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+24.8	+7.8	+17.0
20	Iowa	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+24.7	+9.5	+15.2
21	Clemson	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+24.3	+14.3	+10.0
22	Colorado	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+24.1	+13.7	+10.5
23	Iowa State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+24.1	+11.1	+13.0
24	Arizona State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+24.0	+12.2	+11.7
25	Texas A&M	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+23.6	+11.6	+12.0
26	Florida	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+23.3	+10.7	+12.6
27	Boise State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+23.3	+13.7	+9.6
28	Minnesota	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+23.2	+7.9	+15.4
29	Baylor	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.9	+14.4	+7.5
30	Kansas	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.6	+12.1	+9.5
31	TCU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.5	+12.8	+8.7
32	Missouri	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+21.4	+8.6	+12.8
33	Virginia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+21.3	+9.3	+12.0
34	Nebraska	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+20.7	+4.9	+15.8
35	Washington	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+20.1	+8.0	+12.1
36	Illinois	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+19.9	+9.8	+10.1
37	Oklahoma	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+19.7	+8.3	+11.5
38	UNLV	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+19.1	+11.5	+7.5
39	Utah	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+18.4	+3.2	+15.2
40	Wisconsin	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+18.1	+5.4	+12.7
41	Tulane	FBS	American Conference	+18.0	+9.1	+8.9
42	Army	FBS	American Conference	+17.6	+4.8	+12.8
43	Texas Tech	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+17.6	+15.3	+2.3
44	Rutgers	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+17.3	+10.2	+7.1
45	Auburn	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+17.2	+6.1	+11.1
46	Syracuse	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+17.1	+11.8	+5.4
47	UCF	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+17.1	+11.1	+5.9
48	Georgia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+16.8	+9.0	+7.8
49	Arkansas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+16.7	+9.0	+7.7
50	Duke	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+16.3	+6.3	+10.0
51	Memphis	FBS	American Conference	+16.2	+11.1	+5.1
52	Vanderbilt	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+16.1	+7.7	+8.4
53	Navy	FBS	American Conference	+16.0	+6.9	+9.1
54	UCLA	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+16.0	+3.7	+12.3
55	Cincinnati	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+15.7	+5.8	+10.0
56	Boston College	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+15.7	+7.5	+8.2
57	West Virginia	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+15.3	+10.3	+5.1
58	California	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+15.3	+4.8	+10.5
59	James Madison	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+15.1	+6.8	+8.2
60	Marshall	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+14.9	+7.4	+7.6
61	Kentucky	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+14.8	+2.9	+11.9
62	Pittsburgh	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+14.4	+9.2	+5.3
63	Washington State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+14.1	+11.7	+2.4
64	North Carolina	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+13.8	+10.5	+3.3
65	Ohio	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+13.6	+3.8	+9.8
66	Oklahoma State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+13.2	+10.0	+3.2
67	Texas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+13.0	+10.7	+2.4
68	Maryland	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+12.8	+7.9	+4.9
69	Miami (OH)	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+12.0	+1.2	+10.8
70	NC State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+11.9	+7.6	+4.3
71	Arizona	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+11.7	+5.6	+6.1
72	Louisiana	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+11.2	+6.3	+4.8
73	South Alabama	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+10.7	+6.9	+3.8
74	Houston	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+10.6	-1.3	+11.9
75	Bowling Green	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+10.5	+3.4	+7.2
76	UTSA	FBS	American Conference	+10.3	+8.6	+1.7
77	Northwestern	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+10.2	+2.0	+8.2
78	Toledo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+10.2	+4.9	+5.3
79	Virginia	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+10.0	+3.4	+6.7
80	Northern Illinois	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+10.0	-0.8	+10.8
81	Georgia Southern	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+10.0	+6.5	+3.6
82	Old Dominion	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+10.0	+4.9	+5.1
83	Jacksonville State	FBS	Conference USA	+10.0	+9.4	+0.6
84	Mississippi State	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+9.8	+7.2	+2.6
85	Michigan State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+9.4	+0.8	+8.6
86	Florida State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+9.4	-0.1	+9.5
87	Fresno State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+9.2	+3.7	+5.4
88	Western Kentucky	FBS	Conference USA	+9.0	+3.8	+5.3
89	UConn	FBS	FBS Independents	+8.8	+3.8	+4.9
90	Oregon State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+8.6	+4.0	+4.5
91	San José State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+7.9	+5.0	+2.9
92	App State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+7.3	+6.5	+0.9
93	North Texas	FBS	American Conference	+6.9	+9.9	-3.0
94	East Carolina	FBS	American Conference	+6.9	+4.3	+2.6
95	South Florida	FBS	American Conference	+6.8	+6.9	-0.1
96	Stanford	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+6.8	+3.7	+3.1
97	Wake Forest	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+6.7	+4.6	+2.1
98	Troy	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+6.7	+2.3	+4.3
99	Liberty	FBS	Conference USA	+6.4	+3.3	+3.1
100	Missouri State	FBS	Conference USA	+6.2	+7.6	-1.5
101	Sam Houston	FBS	Conference USA	+6.1	-1.5	+7.5
102	Colorado State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+5.9	+1.7	+4.2
103	Coastal Carolina	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+5.6	+5.1	+0.6
104	Buffalo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+5.6	+3.3	+2.3
105	Purdue	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+5.5	+5.5	+0.1
106	Air Force	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+4.3	-2.8	+7.2
107	Western Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+4.3	+5.9	-1.6
108	Wyoming	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+3.4	-2.9	+6.3
109	Arkansas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+3.4	+3.7	-0.3
110	Nevada	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+3.2	+0.2	+3.0
111	Utah State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+2.5	+9.7	-7.2
112	UL Monroe	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+2.4	-1.1	+3.5
113	Delaware	FBS	Conference USA	+2.4	+3.1	-0.8
114	Rice	FBS	American Conference	+1.8	-1.2	+3.0
115	Hawai'i	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+1.7	-2.4	+4.1
116	New Mexico	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+1.5	+9.3	-7.7
117	Georgia State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+1.1	+1.9	-0.8
118	Louisiana Tech	FBS	Conference USA	+0.4	-3.8	+4.2
119	UAB	FBS	American Conference	-0.0	+3.6	-3.6
120	Florida International	FBS	Conference USA	-0.7	-1.7	+1.0
121	Eastern Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2
122	Ball State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-0.8	+3.7	-4.5
123	Akron	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-1.3	-1.1	-0.1
124	Charlotte	FBS	American Conference	-1.3	+0.1	-1.4
125	San Diego State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	-1.6	-3.2	+1.6
126	Florida Atlantic	FBS	American Conference	-1.9	-0.6	-1.3
127	Central Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-2.5	-0.7	-1.9
128	Massachusetts	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-4.4	+1.5	-5.9
129	Temple	FBS	American Conference	-5.0	-3.3	-1.7
130	UTEP	FBS	Conference USA	-5.2	-2.6	-2.5
131	New Mexico State	FBS	Conference USA	-5.4	-1.4	-4.0
132	Middle Tennessee	FBS	Conference USA	-7.3	-3.7	-3.6
133	Southern Miss	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	-8.6	-4.5	-4.1
134	Tulsa	FBS	American Conference	-9.2	+0.7	-9.8
135	Kennesaw State	FBS	Conference USA	-9.4	-7.5	-1.8
136	Kent State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-13.6	-4.2	-9.3

SRS — season 2024 reference

The prior per-season opponent-adjusted-margin rating, kept for comparison. Season-final only (no preseason or point-in-time), which is why the rewrite replaced it as the headline number.

#	Team	Div	Conference	SRS	Off (higher = better)	Def (lower = better)
1	Ohio State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+42.9	+27.5	-30.6
2	Notre Dame	FBS	FBS Independents	+38.6	+27.6	-26.8
3	Texas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+36.8	+24.9	-28.3
4	Oregon	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+36.5	+26.0	-21.7
5	Penn State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+36.5	+23.0	-26.1
6	Ole Miss	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+34.0	+26.1	-25.4
7	Alabama	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+33.6	+25.5	-24.7
8	Indiana	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+33.4	+28.6	-23.0
9	Georgia	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+33.1	+24.3	-24.1
10	BYU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+31.7	+19.5	-21.1
11	South Carolina	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+31.3	+21.1	-23.6
12	Miami	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+31.2	+29.9	-13.6
13	SMU	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+31.1	+24.2	-18.0
14	Louisville	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+30.1	+24.7	-18.3
15	Arizona State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+30.1	+21.9	-20.1
16	Colorado	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+30.0	+21.5	-19.1
17	Iowa	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+29.2	+18.8	-21.0
18	USC	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+29.1	+22.5	-19.2
19	Tennessee	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+29.1	+24.1	-24.6
20	LSU	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+29.1	+22.2	-19.4
21	Minnesota	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+28.8	+16.2	-23.9
22	Kansas State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+28.6	+19.5	-18.4
23	Clemson	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+28.4	+22.9	-17.4
24	Iowa State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+28.2	+18.9	-19.9
25	Texas A&M	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+28.0	+20.7	-20.2
26	Baylor	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+27.8	+22.9	-14.5
27	Florida	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+27.7	+19.6	-21.9
28	Boise State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+27.6	+20.3	-15.2
29	Virginia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+26.7	+16.6	-19.9
30	Michigan	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+25.9	+15.1	-24.2
31	Nebraska	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+25.8	+12.2	-22.1
32	Kansas	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+25.7	+19.1	-16.7
33	TCU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+25.2	+19.4	-15.3
34	Illinois	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+24.9	+17.4	-17.7
35	UNLV	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+24.0	+18.4	-14.9
36	Missouri	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+23.7	+16.3	-20.9
37	Army	FBS	American Conference	+23.6	+12.0	-19.3
38	Tulane	FBS	American Conference	+22.9	+19.2	-16.4
39	Syracuse	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+22.8	+20.3	-11.2
40	Navy	FBS	American Conference	+22.6	+14.7	-14.2
41	Oklahoma	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+22.2	+15.9	-21.0
42	Vanderbilt	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+22.2	+17.0	-18.0
43	Rutgers	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+22.0	+18.4	-12.7
44	Washington	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+22.0	+13.1	-19.2
45	Utah	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.9	+10.4	-21.5
46	Wisconsin	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+21.8	+13.1	-19.6
47	UCF	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.5	+20.2	-13.4
48	Cincinnati	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.4	+13.3	-17.3
49	Texas Tech	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.1	+23.5	-8.1
50	Boston College	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+21.0	+15.8	-15.9
51	Georgia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+20.9	+16.3	-16.0
52	Auburn	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+20.7	+15.8	-19.5
53	Marshall	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+20.7	+14.4	-13.1
54	Arkansas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+20.6	+18.3	-16.5
55	Memphis	FBS	American Conference	+20.0	+16.2	-11.4
56	Pittsburgh	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+19.5	+17.7	-12.0
57	UCLA	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+19.3	+11.1	-18.5
58	James Madison	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+19.1	+12.1	-13.5
59	Ohio	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+19.0	+9.2	-15.3
60	Texas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+18.7	+17.2	-10.0
61	California	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+18.6	+10.1	-18.0
62	Duke	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+18.5	+12.1	-15.3
63	Kentucky	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+18.5	+11.1	-20.8
64	West Virginia	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+17.8	+16.3	-10.5
65	Miami (OH)	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+17.4	+7.0	-15.6
66	North Carolina	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+17.1	+16.7	-9.6
67	Washington State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+17.0	+17.0	-7.2
68	Northern Illinois	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+16.2	+3.9	-16.9
69	Louisiana	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+15.9	+11.1	-10.3
70	Old Dominion	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+15.8	+12.1	-10.3
71	Bowling Green	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+15.7	+7.9	-11.8
72	Maryland	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+15.3	+15.0	-11.1
73	UConn	FBS	FBS Independents	+15.2	+11.5	-11.4
74	Oklahoma State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+15.2	+15.4	-7.9
75	Georgia Southern	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+15.2	+11.3	-9.9
76	Toledo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+15.0	+9.7	-10.2
77	NC State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+15.0	+14.4	-8.6
78	Virginia	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+14.8	+10.2	-14.0
79	Houston	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+14.4	+4.5	-19.3
80	Jacksonville State	FBS	Conference USA	+14.2	+16.2	-5.0
81	South Alabama	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+14.2	+13.5	-9.1
82	Michigan State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+13.9	+7.4	-15.2
83	Mississippi State	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+13.6	+17.3	-9.4
84	UTSA	FBS	American Conference	+13.6	+13.0	-4.7
85	Arizona	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+13.1	+9.7	-10.0
86	Northwestern	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+13.0	+7.7	-13.9
87	Western Kentucky	FBS	Conference USA	+12.2	+5.9	-8.6
88	North Texas	FBS	American Conference	+12.0	+14.7	-2.5
89	Fresno State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+11.9	+8.5	-9.8
90	East Carolina	FBS	American Conference	+11.8	+10.6	-6.5
91	Buffalo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+11.5	+8.0	-5.8
92	Sam Houston	FBS	Conference USA	+11.3	+4.2	-12.2
93	South Florida	FBS	American Conference	+11.3	+12.1	-6.2
94	Stanford	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+10.9	+10.1	-8.7
95	San José State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+10.8	+10.1	-6.9
96	Wake Forest	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+10.6	+11.1	-7.3
97	App State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+10.3	+9.6	-4.5
98	Western Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+10.1	+9.7	-2.0
99	Colorado State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+9.9	+6.0	-8.5
100	Florida State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+9.7	+4.3	-14.7
101	Oregon State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+8.8	+7.1	-7.1
102	Coastal Carolina	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+8.6	+10.0	-4.1
103	Nevada	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+8.5	+7.1	-8.3
104	Purdue	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+8.3	+7.7	-1.9
105	Troy	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+8.2	+7.1	-6.7
106	Liberty	FBS	Conference USA	+8.2	+5.1	-6.7
107	Missouri State	FBS	Conference USA	+7.9	+8.0	+1.7
108	UL Monroe	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+7.5	+4.1	-8.2
109	Air Force	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+6.6	+0.7	-11.3
110	Rice	FBS	American Conference	+6.4	+4.8	-9.7
111	Arkansas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+6.4	+7.4	-3.1
112	Utah State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+6.3	+14.7	+2.8
113	Wyoming	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+5.8	+1.2	-10.0
114	Hawai'i	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+5.6	+1.1	-8.8
115	New Mexico	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+5.5	+15.3	+4.2
116	Louisiana Tech	FBS	Conference USA	+5.3	-0.4	-10.6
117	Eastern Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+5.3	+5.1	-3.7
118	Florida International	FBS	Conference USA	+5.2	+4.2	-6.5
119	Akron	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+4.9	+3.7	-3.2
120	Georgia State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+4.8	+7.5	-3.8
121	UAB	FBS	American Conference	+4.7	+8.0	-1.1
122	Charlotte	FBS	American Conference	+4.5	+6.7	-3.1
123	Ball State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+4.1	+7.9	+4.4
124	Delaware	FBS	Conference USA	+3.3	+4.7	+0.2
125	Central Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+2.7	+4.5	-2.9
126	Florida Atlantic	FBS	American Conference	+1.9	+4.9	-2.7
127	San Diego State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+1.3	+1.8	-5.1
128	Massachusetts	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+0.6	+5.9	+2.1
129	Temple	FBS	American Conference	-0.0	+0.9	-2.8
130	UTEP	FBS	Conference USA	-2.1	+1.2	+1.1
131	New Mexico State	FBS	Conference USA	-3.8	+1.4	+3.3
132	Middle Tennessee	FBS	Conference USA	-5.2	-0.5	+1.3
133	Kennesaw State	FBS	Conference USA	-5.2	-3.8	-1.3
134	Southern Miss	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	-6.2	-2.0	+1.4
135	Tulsa	FBS	American Conference	-6.4	+2.6	+9.5
136	Kent State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-9.3	-2.9	+9.2

Elo — live 2026 · week 2

#	Team	Div	Elo
1	Indiana	FBS	1778
2	Notre Dame	FBS	1749
3	Georgia	FBS	1746
4	Ohio State	FBS	1745
5	Texas Tech	FBS	1723
6	Miami	FBS	1719
7	Ole Miss	FBS	1715
8	Alabama	FBS	1708
9	James Madison	FBS	1703
10	Texas	FBS	1701
11	Oregon	FBS	1698
12	SMU	FBS	1695
13	Utah	FBS	1693
14	Texas A&M	FBS	1691
15	BYU	FBS	1681
16	USC	FBS	1676
17	Vanderbilt	FBS	1671
18	Penn State	FBS	1671
19	Iowa	FBS	1664
20	Tennessee	FBS	1655
21	Duke	FBS	1649
22	Louisville	FBS	1644
23	Michigan	FBS	1642
24	Washington	FBS	1641
25	South Florida	FBS	1636

Independent check — SP+ reference, not an input

SP+ is built by someone else from different inputs. Showing it beside our number is the point: two honest estimates, and where they disagree you can see it instead of taking our word for it. Nothing here is fitted to agree with SP+ — it is a yardstick, never an input. Across the 134 teams both systems rate, rank agreement is 0.96 (1.00 = identical order).

Where we disagree most

SP+ top 25