BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

Power Ratings — 2026 · Preseason 136 teams

Preseason = each team's 2025 finish regressed toward the mean. It can't yet see roster turnover, the portal, or recruiting; it updates as 2026 games are played. Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. A model rating, not a betting edge.

#	Team	Div	Conference	Power	Off (higher = better)	Def (higher = better)
1	Notre Dame	FBS	FBS Independents	+35.6	+22.4	+13.2
2	Ohio State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+34.9	+15.1	+19.7
3	Indiana	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+33.9	+18.5	+15.4
4	Alabama	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+33.7	+18.9	+14.9
5	Texas A&M	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+31.6	+16.2	+15.4
6	Utah	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+30.1	+18.4	+11.7
7	Texas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+30.0	+14.2	+15.8
8	Miami	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+29.0	+16.2	+12.8
9	Penn State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+28.5	+10.4	+18.1
10	LSU	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+27.0	+12.8	+14.2
11	Texas Tech	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+27.0	+13.8	+13.1
12	Tennessee	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+26.9	+22.0	+5.0
13	SMU	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+26.8	+13.9	+12.9
14	USC	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+26.1	+16.9	+9.2
15	Oregon	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+26.0	+17.2	+8.8
16	BYU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+25.1	+13.9	+11.2
17	Kansas State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+24.9	+15.7	+9.2
18	Ole Miss	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+24.9	+16.2	+8.7
19	Iowa	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+24.7	+6.9	+17.7
20	Oklahoma	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+23.9	+6.0	+17.9
21	Georgia	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+23.4	+16.5	+6.9
22	Arizona	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+22.9	+7.1	+15.8
23	Virginia	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+22.3	+8.6	+13.7
24	Michigan	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+22.1	+5.7	+16.4
25	Boise State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+22.0	+10.7	+11.3
26	Louisville	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+21.9	+16.3	+5.6
27	Iowa State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+21.9	+7.5	+14.4
28	Vanderbilt	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+21.8	+11.2	+10.6
29	Duke	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+21.6	+11.2	+10.3
30	Auburn	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+21.2	+5.8	+15.4
31	Washington	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+21.1	+7.1	+14.1
32	North Texas	FBS	American Conference	+20.8	+17.3	+3.6
33	Pittsburgh	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+20.6	+10.2	+10.4
34	Missouri	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+20.3	+8.6	+11.7
35	Mississippi State	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+20.2	+15.3	+4.9
36	Florida	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+20.0	+9.7	+10.3
37	UCLA	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+19.9	+9.4	+10.5
38	Nebraska	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+19.7	+14.2	+5.5
39	South Florida	FBS	American Conference	+19.1	+9.4	+9.7
40	UTSA	FBS	American Conference	+19.0	+11.8	+7.2
41	Illinois	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+18.3	+9.8	+8.5
42	South Carolina	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+18.0	+6.4	+11.7
43	TCU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+17.5	+9.7	+7.9
44	Baylor	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+17.3	+9.6	+7.7
45	Northwestern	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+17.0	+3.6	+13.3
46	Western Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+16.8	+3.4	+13.4
47	Wake Forest	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+16.4	+8.4	+8.0
48	Cincinnati	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+16.3	+8.9	+7.5
49	Florida State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+16.0	+7.0	+9.0
50	Clemson	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+15.6	+4.8	+10.7
51	Michigan State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+15.3	+6.0	+9.3
52	Memphis	FBS	American Conference	+15.2	+8.8	+6.4
53	Colorado	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+14.6	+4.8	+9.7
54	Toledo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+14.5	+6.8	+7.6
55	Kentucky	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+14.3	+4.7	+9.5
56	James Madison	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+14.1	+10.4	+3.8
57	Arizona State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+14.0	+10.4	+3.6
58	Houston	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+13.9	+9.8	+4.1
59	NC State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+13.8	+9.2	+4.6
60	UCF	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+13.6	+2.3	+11.3
61	Maryland	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+13.1	+6.7	+6.3
62	North Carolina	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+13.1	-1.9	+15.0
63	Tulane	FBS	American Conference	+13.0	-0.1	+13.1
64	Washington State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+12.9	-0.0	+13.0
65	Army	FBS	American Conference	+12.9	+4.3	+8.6
66	New Mexico	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+12.1	+9.1	+3.0
67	Wisconsin	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+12.0	-1.3	+13.3
68	Georgia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+12.0	+3.5	+8.5
69	San Diego State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+11.8	+2.7	+9.1
70	Virginia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+11.6	+11.4	+0.2
71	Texas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+10.8	+10.0	+0.7
72	East Carolina	FBS	American Conference	+10.4	+3.9	+6.5
73	Arkansas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+10.4	+5.8	+4.5
74	Louisiana	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+10.2	+8.1	+2.1
75	Fresno State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+10.1	-0.4	+10.5
76	West Virginia	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+10.1	+6.0	+4.0
77	UNLV	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+10.0	+1.9	+8.1
78	Purdue	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+9.7	+7.1	+2.6
79	Kansas	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+9.5	+7.6	+1.9
80	Old Dominion	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+9.3	+1.2	+8.0
81	Navy	FBS	American Conference	+9.1	+4.6	+4.5
82	Temple	FBS	American Conference	+8.3	+3.6	+4.7
83	Utah State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+8.0	+2.3	+5.7
84	Delaware	FBS	Conference USA	+7.6	+6.8	+0.8
85	South Alabama	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+7.5	+5.6	+1.9
86	App State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+7.5	+4.9	+2.6
87	Oklahoma State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+7.3	+1.5	+5.9
88	Colorado State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+7.2	+6.0	+1.2
89	Air Force	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+6.9	+3.7	+3.1
90	Minnesota	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+6.8	+1.1	+5.6
91	Missouri State	FBS	Conference USA	+6.7	+3.9	+2.7
92	California	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+6.6	+3.4	+3.2
93	Georgia Southern	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+6.1	+1.4	+4.7
94	Ohio	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+5.7	+3.1	+2.6
95	Nevada	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+5.6	-3.4	+8.9
96	Florida International	FBS	Conference USA	+5.3	-0.2	+5.5
97	Marshall	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+5.2	+3.8	+1.3
98	Syracuse	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+5.2	+1.5	+3.7
99	Jacksonville State	FBS	Conference USA	+5.2	+2.1	+3.1
100	Tulsa	FBS	American Conference	+4.8	-0.9	+5.8
101	Oregon State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+4.4	+0.4	+4.0
102	Miami (OH)	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+4.3	+3.3	+0.9
103	Arkansas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+4.3	+4.1	+0.2
104	Boston College	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+4.0	+0.7	+3.3
105	Stanford	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+4.0	+1.4	+2.5
106	Coastal Carolina	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+3.9	+3.6	+0.3
107	Louisiana Tech	FBS	Conference USA	+3.9	+4.1	-0.2
108	San José State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+3.5	+2.2	+1.3
109	Southern Miss	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+3.5	+1.6	+1.9
110	Rice	FBS	American Conference	+3.0	-4.4	+7.4
111	Liberty	FBS	Conference USA	+2.6	-3.3	+5.9
112	Troy	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+2.5	-1.3	+3.8
113	UConn	FBS	FBS Independents	+2.4	+3.2	-0.8
114	Akron	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+2.3	+1.9	+0.4
115	Hawai'i	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+2.1	-0.9	+3.0
116	Georgia State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+2.0	+2.8	-0.7
117	Florida Atlantic	FBS	American Conference	+1.9	+9.4	-7.5
118	Rutgers	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+1.6	+3.2	-1.6
119	Ball State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+1.3	+0.1	+1.2
120	Kennesaw State	FBS	Conference USA	+0.2	-1.4	+1.7
121	Northern Illinois	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-0.1	-4.2	+4.1
122	Western Kentucky	FBS	Conference USA	-0.2	+5.5	-5.6
123	New Mexico State	FBS	Conference USA	-0.6	-0.7	+0.1
124	UAB	FBS	American Conference	-1.0	+2.0	-3.0
125	Kent State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-1.3	+3.2	-4.6
126	Bowling Green	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-1.8	-6.9	+5.1
127	UTEP	FBS	Conference USA	-2.1	+0.4	-2.5
128	Middle Tennessee	FBS	Conference USA	-2.2	-1.3	-0.9
129	Massachusetts	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-3.1	-2.0	-1.1
130	Buffalo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-3.4	-3.1	-0.3
131	Central Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-3.5	-8.6	+5.1
132	Wyoming	FBS	Mountain West Conference	-3.7	-9.4	+5.7
133	Eastern Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-3.8	-4.1	+0.3
134	UL Monroe	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	-4.2	-3.9	-0.4
135	Sam Houston	FBS	Conference USA	-5.4	-4.3	-1.1
136	Charlotte	FBS	American Conference	-10.3	-4.9	-5.4

SRS — season 2025 reference

The prior per-season opponent-adjusted-margin rating, kept for comparison. Season-final only (no preseason or point-in-time), which is why the rewrite replaced it as the headline number.

#	Team	Div	Conference	SRS	Off (higher = better)	Def (lower = better)
1	Indiana	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+43.1	+33.8	-31.2
2	Ohio State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+40.8	+24.3	-32.4
3	Notre Dame	FBS	FBS Independents	+39.4	+30.4	-25.3
4	Oregon	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+38.8	+29.8	-26.6
5	Texas Tech	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+37.7	+25.3	-27.3
6	Miami	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+37.4	+20.9	-30.3
7	Utah	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+35.5	+28.5	-21.1
8	Georgia	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+34.2	+20.2	-26.4
9	Ole Miss	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+32.5	+27.9	-18.3
10	Vanderbilt	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+31.7	+27.8	-16.9
11	Texas A&M	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+31.5	+23.4	-21.0
12	Washington	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+31.5	+23.9	-22.2
13	USC	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+31.2	+25.8	-20.1
14	BYU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+30.0	+20.2	-22.5
15	Oklahoma	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+29.8	+16.1	-27.9
16	Iowa	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+29.8	+17.9	-26.2
17	Alabama	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+29.3	+22.4	-22.9
18	Penn State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+29.3	+21.5	-21.5
19	Texas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+28.4	+19.3	-22.1
20	South Florida	FBS	American Conference	+28.0	+23.5	-14.9
21	SMU	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+27.6	+17.6	-18.7
22	Arizona	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+27.3	+17.5	-20.7
23	Illinois	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+26.9	+19.1	-19.7
24	Michigan	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+26.8	+19.8	-21.1
25	James Madison	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+26.8	+18.1	-17.6
26	Tennessee	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+26.6	+26.9	-12.3
27	North Texas	FBS	American Conference	+26.1	+29.0	-8.1
28	Virginia	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+25.9	+16.4	-19.8
29	Louisville	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+25.4	+18.3	-17.8
30	Missouri	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+25.4	+16.8	-22.1
31	TCU	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+24.6	+18.3	-16.0
32	Iowa State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+24.3	+15.2	-19.6
33	Pittsburgh	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+24.3	+20.7	-15.6
34	Auburn	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+24.0	+14.6	-21.9
35	LSU	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+23.8	+12.7	-23.1
36	Kansas State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+23.1	+18.4	-14.4
37	Georgia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+22.9	+18.0	-15.5
38	Florida State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+22.6	+20.3	-18.2
39	Houston	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+22.5	+16.0	-14.9
40	Clemson	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+22.3	+13.9	-18.8
41	Old Dominion	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+22.2	+12.6	-17.4
42	NC State	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+22.2	+18.6	-14.9
43	Duke	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+22.2	+22.1	-9.3
44	Arizona State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+22.0	+12.0	-19.4
45	Washington State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+21.6	+8.6	-19.4
46	East Carolina	FBS	American Conference	+21.0	+14.8	-16.9
47	Toledo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+20.8	+12.4	-17.4
48	South Carolina	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+20.7	+12.1	-20.6
48	Wake Forest	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+20.7	+11.8	-18.2
49	Tulane	FBS	American Conference	+20.4	+11.6	-17.1
50	Boise State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+20.0	+13.8	-14.6
51	Northwestern	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+19.9	+10.7	-20.1
52	Florida	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+19.7	+12.8	-20.4
53	San Diego State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+19.5	+9.2	-18.5
54	Arkansas	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+19.4	+21.2	-9.1
55	Kentucky	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+19.3	+12.6	-17.2
56	Memphis	FBS	American Conference	+19.0	+13.3	-13.4
57	UTSA	FBS	American Conference	+18.4	+18.5	-8.6
58	Kansas	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+18.3	+16.2	-12.5
59	Wisconsin	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+17.9	+6.5	-23.5
60	Navy	FBS	American Conference	+17.7	+12.3	-12.9
61	Mississippi State	FBS	Southeastern Conference	+17.1	+18.6	-10.6
62	Cincinnati	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+17.0	+16.1	-13.3
63	Rutgers	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+16.9	+18.5	-9.2
64	Nebraska	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+16.9	+16.9	-15.5
65	Baylor	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+16.4	+18.9	-7.2
66	New Mexico	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+16.2	+10.0	-13.9
67	Army	FBS	American Conference	+16.1	+5.7	-18.0
68	Texas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+16.0	+16.3	-3.8
69	UNLV	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+15.8	+16.4	-6.2
70	Michigan State	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+15.6	+14.4	-13.4
71	Western Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+15.5	+6.0	-16.7
72	Minnesota	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+15.4	+11.1	-15.8
73	Maryland	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+15.1	+11.3	-14.1
74	UCLA	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+14.3	+10.8	-13.1
75	Purdue	FBS	Big Ten Conference	+14.1	+10.4	-13.7
76	Utah State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+14.0	+14.2	-8.0
77	Hawai'i	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+13.4	+10.2	-9.8
78	Colorado	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+13.4	+10.0	-11.2
79	Louisiana Tech	FBS	Conference USA	+13.3	+7.0	-11.5
80	UCF	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+13.3	+8.3	-15.0
81	Ohio	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+13.0	+8.6	-10.6
82	Fresno State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+12.9	+6.5	-13.7
83	California	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+12.6	+10.5	-9.7
84	West Virginia	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+12.5	+9.9	-9.9
85	UConn	FBS	FBS Independents	+12.3	+13.2	-6.1
86	Virginia Tech	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+12.3	+11.8	-11.3
87	Kennesaw State	FBS	Conference USA	+11.9	+8.3	-7.1
88	Marshall	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+11.6	+11.2	-4.1
89	Western Kentucky	FBS	Conference USA	+11.5	+8.5	-8.7
90	Stanford	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+11.5	+8.0	-13.3
91	Miami (OH)	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+10.0	+6.0	-10.8
92	Troy	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+9.5	+4.1	-9.5
93	North Carolina	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+9.5	+4.5	-12.6
94	Air Force	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+9.0	+11.1	-4.5
95	Southern Miss	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+8.9	+7.3	-5.3
96	Boston College	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+8.8	+11.4	-7.1
97	Temple	FBS	American Conference	+8.7	+11.1	-5.9
98	Missouri State	FBS	Conference USA	+8.3	+6.2	-4.8
99	Syracuse	FBS	Atlantic Coast Conference	+8.0	+7.0	-8.3
100	Jacksonville State	FBS	Conference USA	+7.9	+5.5	-6.4
101	Central Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+7.4	+3.0	-8.2
102	Georgia Southern	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+7.4	+8.6	-1.8
103	Liberty	FBS	Conference USA	+7.2	+5.7	-5.6
104	Arkansas State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+7.0	+3.6	-6.5
105	Florida International	FBS	Conference USA	+6.6	+5.9	-4.5
106	Louisiana	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+6.0	+5.3	-3.9
107	Wyoming	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+5.8	-1.9	-14.3
108	Coastal Carolina	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+5.7	+4.6	-0.9
109	Tulsa	FBS	American Conference	+5.5	+5.5	-6.0
110	Florida Atlantic	FBS	American Conference	+5.0	+10.8	+0.9
111	South Alabama	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+4.9	+5.4	-3.3
112	Delaware	FBS	Conference USA	+4.9	+7.6	-1.0
113	Oklahoma State	FBS	Big 12 Conference	+4.7	+2.3	-8.4
114	Oregon State	FBS	Pac-12 Conference	+4.2	+3.6	-8.0
115	App State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	+4.2	+3.3	-3.7
116	Nevada	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+3.3	+1.1	-8.6
117	Colorado State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+2.8	+3.8	-5.9
118	UAB	FBS	American Conference	+2.6	+7.4	-0.5
119	San José State	FBS	Mountain West Conference	+2.2	+6.2	-1.7
120	Rice	FBS	American Conference	+2.1	-0.9	-6.0
121	Bowling Green	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+2.1	-1.1	-8.6
122	Buffalo	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+1.9	+1.6	-5.5
123	Akron	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+1.0	+1.1	-2.3
124	Eastern Michigan	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+0.9	+5.4	-0.2
125	New Mexico State	FBS	Conference USA	+0.8	-0.2	-5.0
126	Kent State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	+0.3	+4.2	+2.3
127	UTEP	FBS	Conference USA	-0.3	+2.4	-1.4
128	Northern Illinois	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-0.7	-2.0	-7.6
129	Georgia State	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	-0.9	+1.3	+0.2
130	Middle Tennessee	FBS	Conference USA	-1.3	+1.4	-1.4
131	UL Monroe	FBS	Sun Belt Conference	-2.4	-3.1	-1.0
132	Ball State	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-2.7	-2.1	-3.2
133	Charlotte	FBS	American Conference	-4.8	-1.5	-2.7
134	Sam Houston	FBS	Conference USA	-6.8	-1.8	+3.8
135	Massachusetts	FBS	Mid-American Conference	-15.9	-7.1	+7.1

Elo — live 2026 · week 2

#	Team	Div	Elo
1	Indiana	FBS	1778
2	Notre Dame	FBS	1749
3	Georgia	FBS	1746
4	Ohio State	FBS	1745
5	Texas Tech	FBS	1723
6	Miami	FBS	1719
7	Ole Miss	FBS	1715
8	Alabama	FBS	1708
9	James Madison	FBS	1703
10	Texas	FBS	1701
11	Oregon	FBS	1698
12	SMU	FBS	1695
13	Utah	FBS	1693
14	Texas A&M	FBS	1691
15	BYU	FBS	1681
16	USC	FBS	1676
17	Vanderbilt	FBS	1671
18	Penn State	FBS	1671
19	Iowa	FBS	1664
20	Tennessee	FBS	1655
21	Duke	FBS	1649
22	Louisville	FBS	1644
23	Michigan	FBS	1642
24	Washington	FBS	1641
25	South Florida	FBS	1636

Independent check — SP+ reference, not an input

SP+ is built by someone else from different inputs. Showing it beside our number is the point: two honest estimates, and where they disagree you can see it instead of taking our word for it. Nothing here is fitted to agree with SP+ — it is a yardstick, never an input. Across the 136 teams both systems rate, rank agreement is 0.89 (1.00 = identical order).

Where we disagree most

SP+ top 25