On the board
51 priced of 128
Median gap
4.2
Straight up
104–32
Model state
EARLY SEASON
● Top projected winners
76% · 104-32 this season
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
Top projected winners
ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Duke
-15.0 · 88%
over Stanford
-345 FanDuel
Pittsburgh
-13.8 · 85%
over Syracuse
-365 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-10.4 · 82%
over Houston
-340 ESPN Bet
Louisiana
-12.2 · 79%
over UAB
-340 DraftKings
Virginia
-11.5 · 76%
over West Virginia
-330 FanDuel
Vanderbilt
-9.5 · 73%
over NC State
-179 Caesars
North Texas
-1.1 · 69%
over Texas State
+125 BetMGM
Toledo
-10.0 · 69%
over Temple
-192 DraftKings
Top spread reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence
Ole Miss
+3.0
we differ by 3.2 pts
-110 BetMGM
Alabama
-20.5
we differ by 1.5 pts
best -18.5 -110 ESPN Bet
SMU
+2.0
we differ by 9.0 pts
best +2.5 -110 ESPN Bet
Texas A&M
-15.5
we differ by 2.0 pts
-110 ESPN Bet
Wake Forest
+22.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-109 Caesars
Auburn
+2.5
we differ by 0.8 pts
+100 Caesars
Texas Tech
-9.5
we differ by 0.9 pts
best -8.5 -105 ESPN Bet
Mississippi State
+3.5
we differ by 1.3 pts
-109 Caesars
Top total reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line
Under 58.5
-3.5 pts
LSU @ MISS · ours 55.0
-105 Caesars
Over 49.5
+1.2 pts
FSU @ ALA · ours 50.7
-110 BetMGM
Under 59.5
-4.0 pts
SMU @ LOU · ours 55.5
-108 DraftKings
Over 49.5
+4.2 pts
UK @ TA&M · ours 53.7
best 48.5 -115 ESPN Bet
Under 55.5
-3.4 pts
MIA @ WAKE · ours 52.1
-110 BetMGM
Under 53.5
-4.8 pts
FLA @ AUB · ours 48.7
-107 Caesars
Over 53.5
+1.1 pts
HOU @ TTU · ours 54.6
best 52.5 -115 ESPN Bet
Under 58.5
-4.3 pts
MSST @ SC · ours 54.2
-105 BetMGM
Top team totals
our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week
No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.
What the colors mean state · side · price · outcome
State
In play · its own hue, never an outcome
To play Played
Prediction — which side
The side we logged, edged in that team’s own color
Identity only. It names the side; it does not say the side is good.
Value — the price
◆One book’s number beats the field, in POINTS
16 games today
Tap the book or the total to put that side on the slip at that price.
Points first, price second — half a point is worth far more than a few cents of juice.
ncaaf_line_shopping.py: +0.86% win rate, +1.61% ROI over 8,652 graded bets. The only edge this site has measured,
and the only thing on this page with a right answer.
Outcome
ATS WTOT LML ·
Graded games only. Nothing in play is ever green or red.
How reliable has each gap band been?
ncaaf_edge_audit.py · 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0-3 pts
52.0% n=4,250
3-7
50.2% n=3,651
7-14
49.3% n=2,173
14+
46.8% n=666
17+ wide
p90 — tagged, never ranked up
Read the ramp the way it is drawn: bright means we AGREE with the market. Every band above is under the 52.4% break-even and the rate falls as our disagreement grows, so a big gap is this model’s worst bucket rather than a buy signal. That is why the disagreement column is drawn in neutral ink instead of a hot-to-cold scale, why nothing here is sorted by it, and why the value color is attached to the price rather than to the size of our disagreement.
| Kickoff | Matchup | Score | Our number | The book | Disagreement ← awaybookhome → | Side we logged | Best line — and by how much | Total | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To play51 kickoff order · 77 further games carry no line and are not on this sheet | |||||||||
| Thu 7:30 PM |
 SyracuseSYR
at
PittsburghPITT |
— | PITT −13.8 | PITT −10.5 | 3.3 | PITT -10.5 | MGM-10-112CZR-10-113DK-10.5-108ESPN-10.5-105FD-10.5-105 | 85%our win prob | |
| Fri 7:30 PM |
MiamiMIA
at
Wake ForestWAKE |
— | MIA −17.0 | MIA −22.5 | 5.5 | WAKE +22.5 | MGM+22-108CZR+22.5-109DK+22.5-112ESPN+22.5-110FD+22.5-110 | 74%our win prob | |
| Fri 8:00 PM |
HoustonHOU
at
Texas TechTTU |
— | TTU −10.4 | TTU −9.5 | 0.9 | TTU -9.5 | MGM-8.5-108CZR-9.5-109DK-9.5-105ESPN-8.5-105FD-9.5-105 | 82%our win prob | |
| Sat 11:30 AM |
 Coastal CarolinaCCU
at
 DelawareDEL |
— | DEL −7.6 | DEL −5.5 | 2.1 | DEL -5.5 | MGM-5-110DK-5.5-108FD-5.5-110 | 63%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 GeorgiaUGA
at
 ArkansasARK |
— | UGA −18.0 | UGA −24.5 | 6.5 | ARK +24.5 | MGM+24.5-110CZR+24.5-109DK+24.5-112ESPN+24.5-110FD+24.5-110 | 75%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 North CarolinaUNC
at
 ClemsonCLEM |
— | UNC −1.6 | CLEM −3.5 | 5.1 | UNC +3.5 | MGM+3.5-108CZR+3.5-108DK+3.5-105ESPN+4.5-120FD+3.5-105 | 61%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 Arizona StateASU
at
 KansasKU |
— | ASU −5.8 | ASU −6.0 | 0.2 | KU +6 | MGM+6-118CZR+6-107DK+6-108ESPN+5.5-105FD+5.5-106 | 62%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 TulaneTULN
at
 Kansas StateKSU |
— | KSU −20.7 | KSU −19.5 | 1.2 | KSU -19.5 | MGM-19.5-110CZR-19.5-113DK-19.5-112ESPN-19.5-115FD-19.5-114 | 80%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 Kent StateKENT
at
 Ohio StateOSU |
— | OSU −37.3 | OSU −52.5 | 15.2 | KENT +52.5 | MGM+51.5-110CZR+52.5-110DK+52.5-120ESPN+52.5-115FD+52.5-115 | 99%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 BuffaloBUF
at
 Penn StatePSU |
— | PSU −35.3 | PSU −39.5 | 4.2 | BUF +39.5 | MGM+39.5-110CZR+39.5-110DK+38.5-110ESPN+39.5-110FD+39.5-110 | 98%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 Bowling GreenBGSU
at
 Iowa StateISU |
— | ISU −22.6 | ISU −23.0 | 0.4 | BGSU +23 | MGM+23-110CZR+22.5-107DK+22.5-108ESPN+23.5-110FD+23.5-110 | 94%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 AkronAKR
at
 MinnesotaMINN |
— | MINN −6.0 | MINN −26.5 | 20.5wide | AKR +26.5 | MGM+26.5-108DK+26.5-110ESPN+26.5-105FD+26.5-106 | 65%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:30 PM |
 Eastern MichiganEMU
at
 WisconsinWIS |
— | WIS −16.9 | WIS −24.5 | 7.6 | EMU +24.5 | MGM+24.5-110CZR+24.5-110DK+24.5-108ESPN+24.5-110FD+24.5-110 | 86%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:45 PM |
 NC StateNCSU
at
VanderbiltVAN |
— | VAN −9.5 | VAN −4.5 | 5.0 | VAN -4.5 | MGM-4-110CZR-4.5-106DK-4.5-108ESPN-5.5-105FD-4.5-114 | 73%our win prob | |
| Sat 1:00 PM |
 WyomingWYO
at
 Central MichiganCMU |
— | CMU −0.2 | CMU −1.5 | 1.3 | WYO +1.5 | MGM+1.5-110DK+1.5-108ESPN+1.5-110FD+1.5-110 | 55%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:00 PM |
 TempleTEM
at
ToledoTOL |
— | TOL −10.0 | TOL −5.5 | 4.5 | TOL -5.5 | MGM-5.5-105DK-5.5-105ESPN-5.5-110FD-5.5-110 | 69%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
Florida StateFSU
at
AlabamaALA |
— | ALA −22.0 | ALA −20.5 | 1.5 | ALA -20.5 | MGM-20.5-110CZR-20.5-108DK-20.5-112ESPN-18.5-110FD-20.5-106 | 89%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
SMUSMU
at
LouisvilleLOU |
— | SMU −7.0 | LOU −2.0 | 9.0 | SMU +2 | MGM+2-110CZR+1.5-109DK+1.5-108ESPN+2.5-110FD+2.5-110 | 57%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
KentuckyUK
at
Texas A&MTA&M |
— | TA&M −17.5 | TA&M −15.5 | 2.0 | TA&M -15.5 | MGM-16-108CZR-16-113DK-15.5-115ESPN-15.5-110FD-15.5-110 | 88%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 USCUSC
at
 RutgersRUTG |
— | USC −29.4 | USC −24.5 | 4.9 | USC -24.5 | MGM-24.5-110CZR-24.5-114DK-24.5-112ESPN-24.5-115FD-24.5-118 | 92%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 Utah StateUSU
at
 UtahUTAH |
— | UTAH −24.6 | UTAH −28.5 | 3.9 | USU +28.5 | MGM+28.5-112CZR+28.5-109DK+28.5-115ESPN+28.5-110FD+28.5-112 | 93%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 Miami (OH)M-OH
at
 CincinnatiCIN |
— | CIN −9.2 | CIN −14.5 | 5.3 | M-OH +14.5 | MGM+14.5-115CZR+14.5-112DK+14.5-115ESPN+14.5-105FD+14.5-105 | 80%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 UTEPUTEP
at
 MichiganMICH |
— | MICH −22.5 | MICH −36.5 | 14.0 | UTEP +36.5 | MGM+37.5-110DK+36.5-110ESPN+36.5-110FD+36.5-112 | 94%our win prob | |
| Sat 4:00 PM |
 StanfordSTAN
at
DukeDUKE |
— | DUKE −15.0 | DUKE −9.5 | 5.5 | DUKE -9.5 | MGM-9.5-110CZR-9.5-110DK-9.5-112ESPN-9.5-105FD-9.5-105 | 88%our win prob | |
| Sat 4:00 PM |
 Western KentuckyWKU
at
 IndianaIU |
— | IU −33.2 | IU −44.5 | 11.3 | WKU +44.5 | DK+44.5-112ESPN+44.5-110FD+44.5-110 | 99%our win prob | |
| Sat 4:00 PM |
 Ball StateBALL
at
 LibertyLIB |
— | LIB −5.0 | LIB −14.5 | 9.5 | BALL +14.5 | MGM+14.5-112DK+14-105ESPN+14.5-110FD+14.5-110 | — | 58%our win prob |
| Sat 4:15 PM |
Mississippi StateMSST
at
South CarolinaSC |
— | SC −2.2 | SC −3.5 | 1.3 | MSST +3.5 | MGM+3.5-110CZR+3.5-109DK+3.5-110ESPN+3.5-110FD+3.5-110 | 51%our win prob | |
| Sat 6:00 PM |
 East CarolinaECU
at
 Old DominionODU |
— | ODU −6.5 | ODU −2.5 | 4.0 | ODU -2.5 | MGM-3-105DK-2.5-118FD-2.5-115 | 52%our win prob | |
| Sat 6:00 PM |
 Florida InternationalFIU
at
 Florida AtlanticFAU |
— | FIU −3.5 | FAU −7.0 | 10.5 | FIU +7 | MGM+7-105DK+7-112FD+7.5-122 | 54%our win prob | |
| Sat 6:00 PM |
 CharlotteCLT
at
 App StateAPP |
— | APP −18.4 | APP −20.5 | 2.1 | CLT +20.5 | MGM+20.5-105DK+20.5-108FD+20.5-110 | 89%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
FloridaFLA
at
AuburnAUB |
— | FLA −1.7 | FLA −2.5 | 0.8 | AUB +2.5 | MGM+2.5-105CZR+2.5+100DK+2.5-108ESPN+2.5+100FD+2.5-102 | 58%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 TroyTROY
at
 MissouriMIZ |
— | MIZ −19.7 | MIZ −27.5 | 7.8 | TROY +27.5 | MGM+27.5-110DK+27.5-112FD+27.5-110 | 88%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 Georgia StateGAST
at
 UCFUCF |
— | UCF −16.4 | UCF −20.5 | 4.1 | GAST +20.5 | MGM+20-105DK+20.5-108FD+20.5-114 | 79%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 Western MichiganWMU
at
 RiceRICE |
— | WMU −12.9 | WMU −12.0 | 0.9 | WMU -12 | MGM-12-110DK-12.5-108FD-11.5-110 | 77%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 OhioOHIO
at
 South AlabamaUSA |
— | USA −3.5 | USA −4.5 | 1.0 | OHIO +4.5 | MGM+4-108DK+4.5-108FD+4.5-114 | 59%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 Georgia SouthernGASO
at
 Jacksonville StateJXST |
— | JXST −3.3 | JXST −3.5 | 0.2 | GASO +3.5 | MGM+3.5-110DK+3.5+100FD+3.5-110 | 52%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 UConnCONN
at
 Southern MissUSM |
— | USM −7.9 | CONN −3.5 | 11.4 | USM +3.5 | MGM+3.5-115DK+3.5-118FD+3.5-110 | 57%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
LSULSU
at
Ole MissMISS |
— | MISS −0.2 | LSU −3.0 | 3.2 | MISS +3 | MGM+3-110CZR+3-110DK+3-110ESPN+2.5+100FD+2.5-104 | 51%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 West VirginiaWVU
at
VirginiaUVA |
— | UVA −11.5 | UVA −10.0 | 1.5 | UVA -10 | MGM-10-108CZR-10-110DK-10-108FD-9.5-115 | 76%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 ColoradoCOLO
at
 NorthwesternNU |
— | NU −8.0 | NU −3.5 | 4.5 | NU -3.5 | MGM-3.5-110CZR-3.5-107DK-3.5-108FD-3.5-114 | 60%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 Virginia TechVT
at
 MarylandMD |
— | MD −4.2 | VT −3.5 | 7.7 | MD +3.5 | MGM+3-105CZR+3.5-108DK+3-105ESPN+3.5-110FD+3.5-110 | 58%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 Michigan StateMSU
at
 Notre DameND |
— | ND −24.0 | ND −30.0 | 6.0 | MSU +30 | MGM+30-110CZR+29.5-109DK+29.5-110ESPN+30.5-110FD+30.5-108 | 91%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 BYUBYU
at
 Colorado StateCSU |
— | BYU −18.6 | BYU −19.5 | 0.9 | CSU +19.5 | MGM+19-108CZR+20.5-112DK+19.5-112ESPN+19.5-110FD+19.5-110 | 84%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:45 PM |
 Kennesaw StateKENN
at
 TennesseeTENN |
— | TENN −31.8 | TENN −35.5 | 3.7 | KENN +35.5 | MGM+34.5-108CZR+35.5-113DK+35.5-115FD+35.5-112 | 96%our win prob | |
| Sat 8:00 PM |
 Arkansas StateARST
at
 TCUTCU |
— | TCU −14.6 | TCU −20.5 | 5.9 | ARST +20.5 | MGM+20.5-110DK+20.5-108FD+20.5-110 | 82%our win prob | |
| Sat 8:00 PM |
 UABUAB
at
LouisianaUL |
— | UL −12.2 | UL −9.5 | 2.7 | UL -9.5 | MGM-9.5-108DK-9.5-110FD-9.5-110 | 79%our win prob | |
| Sat 10:00 PM |
 James MadisonJMU
at
 San Diego StateSDSU |
— | JMU −0.1 | SDSU −1.5 | 1.6 | JMU +1.5 | MGM+1.5-110DK+1.5-108FD+1.5-110 | 51%our win prob | |
| Sat 10:30 PM |
 Northern IllinoisNIU
at
 ArizonaARIZ |
— | ARIZ −25.1 | ARIZ −34.5 | 9.4 | NIU +34.5 | MGM+34.5-108CZR+34.5-105DK+34.5-108FD+35.5-120 | — | 94%our win prob |
| Sat 10:30 PM |
 North Dakota StateNDSU
at
 Sacramento StateSAC |
— | NDSU −23.0 | NDSU −27.5 | 4.5 | SAC +27.5 | MGM+27.5-105DK+27.5-112FD+27.5-105 | 92%our win prob | |
| Sat 11:00 PM |
 PurduePUR
at
 UCLAUCLA |
— | UCLA −17.8 | UCLA −16.5 | 1.3 | UCLA -16.5 | MGM-16.5-110CZR-16.5-114DK-16.5-110ESPN-15.5-110FD-15.5-110 | 77%our win prob | |
| Sat 11:00 PM |
 Fresno StateFRES
at
 San José StateSJSU |
— | FRES −11.7 | FRES −7.0 | 4.7 | FRES -7 | MGM-7-115DK-7-115FD-7.5-104 | 61%our win prob | |
Every bar puts the book at the center and our number beside it, to one scale for every game. A wide gap is a caution, not a signal — measured over 10,740 graded games, the further we sit from the market the worse we have done (52.0% ATS where we barely disagree, 46.8% where we disagree by 14+ points). Naming a side is orientation, not a recommendation: this project measured no edge on spreads or totals over 10,777 games. The best-number column is a price, never a pick — whatever side you were going to take, it says who has the best number on it.
Every row links to its full breakdown. The books grid, the public splits and the bet slip live on Panels and on each game’s own page.